Limited time to deliver on Northern Ireland’s first Climate Action Plan

Published in June 2025, Northern Ireland’s first draft Climate Action Plan for 2023-2027 outlines the policies and proposals intended to meet the region’s inaugural carbon budget. However, with the consultation now underway, delivery against targets is already constrained by the passage of time.

The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 set a statutory target of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, alongside interim reduction targets of 48 per cent by 2030 and 77 per cent by 2040 against 1990 baseline levels.

Supporting these ambitions, the Act requires the setting of five-yearly carbon budgets, limiting the total permissible GHG emissions. Regulations passed by the Assembly in December 2024 set the first three carbon budgets:

• 2023-2027: 33 per cent average annual reduction from 1990 baseline;
• 2028-2032: 48 per cent average annual reduction; and
• 2033-2037: 62 per cent average annual reduction.

The draft Climate Action Plan is therefore focused on ensuring compliance with the first carbon budget, now in its third year of delivery.

Scope of the draft plan

The plan sets out 52 policies and proposals spanning nine sectors:

1. energy production and supply;
2. transport;
3. business and industrial processes;
4. residential buildings;
5. public buildings;
6. waste management;
7. agriculture;
8. land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF); and
9. fisheries.

Analysis indicates that the combination of quantified policies should be sufficient to deliver the required 33 per cent reduction. However, the draft plan acknowledges that this relies on “stretching assumptions” around investment, policy alignment, and public behaviour change.

Consultation process

A 16-week public consultation on the draft opened in June 2025 and will close on 8 October 2025.

On 20 August 2025, DAERA launched a programme of 10 in-person consultation events, beginning in Belfast and extending to locations including Cookstown, Enniskillen, Ballymena, Newry, Omagh, and Derry. Two online events were also scheduled.

Launching the process, DAERA Minister Andrew Muir MLA said: “The launch of the draft Climate Action Plan is a significant milestone for Northern Ireland that will inform how we reduce carbon emissions, grow our green economy, protect our environment and improve our health and wellbeing. Everyone in society will have a key role to play in delivering it.”

Departmental responsibilities

DAERA holds lead responsibility for preparation and publication of the plan. However, each Executive department has been assigned sectoral responsibility:

• Department for the Economy: energy production and supply, business and industrial processes, and public buildings;
• Department for Infrastructure: transport;
• Department for Communities: residential buildings; and
• DAERA: waste management, agriculture, LULUCF, and fisheries.

Governance is provided by a strategic oversight group of senior officials from all departments, chaired by the DAERA Permanent Secretary and supported by an evidence and analysis group to oversee quantification methodologies.

Sectoral pathways

The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) provided advice on Northern Ireland’s pathway to net zero, setting indicative sectoral reductions. Key actions include:

• Energy: expansion of renewable electricity generation with storage and back-up;
• Transport: scaling zero-emission vehicle uptake and encouraging modal shift;
• Buildings: retrofitting and adoption of low-carbon heating;
• Agriculture: a reduction in livestock numbers alongside efficiency measures;
• LULUCF: afforestation and peatland restoration; and
• Waste: elimination of biodegradable waste to landfill.

Public consultation responses to the CCC’s advice demonstrated broad support for most pathways, though agriculture generated significant divergence of views.

Monitoring and reporting

The plan establishes a statutory monitoring and reporting framework, with DAERA required to publish annual updates to the Assembly. Public bodies will also be subject to new reporting requirements.

Additional oversight is expected from the new Northern Ireland Climate Commissioner and the Just Transition Commission, established under the 2022 Act.

Just transition

The Act requires all departments to have regard to the “just transition” principle when developing policies. This includes ensuring fairness, supporting vulnerable groups, and creating new green jobs.

The draft plan states: “Bringing about the transformational change required will mean everyone doing things differently. The Climate Action Plan can be implemented in a way that is fair to everyone through applying a just transition approach.”

Risks and challenges

Despite its breadth, the draft CAP identifies several challenges:

• reliance on adequate funding and investment across sectors;
• uncertainty over public and political support for behavioural change;
• limited time, with the region already two years into the first carbon budget; and
• gaps in data and evidence, requiring further development in future plans.

DAERA has also emphasised that failure to act decisively will increase long-term costs, both economic and environmental.

Next steps

The consultation outcome will inform the final Climate Action Plan, to be laid before the Assembly later in 2025.

In parallel, DAERA has launched consultation on Northern Ireland’s fourth carbon budget (2038-2042), closing on 17 November 2025.

With Northern Ireland entering the midpoint of the first budget period, delivery against targets will require accelerated action, significant investment, and cross-societal commitment if the 2050 net zero goal is to remain credible.