Harnessing HPC, Data Spaces, and AI for sustainability

Ireland and the wider global ecosystem stands at a pivotal moment in its social, economic, and environmental development. Climate change is driving a steady increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods, storms, and heatwaves, writes Venkatesh Kannan, Associate Director at the Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC).

At the same time, the urgent need to decarbonise our energy system is placing new pressures on the electricity grid, on energy storage, and on the integration of intermittent renewable resources. Agriculture must simultaneously feed a growing population, maintain rural livelihoods, and protect biodiversity. Urban areas are grappling with congestion, air pollution, and the need to create inclusive, safe, and sustainable living environments. These issues are not isolated; they are systemic, interlinked, and influenced by factors that cross sectoral and geographic boundaries.

To respond effectively, Ireland needs a way to not only understand each system in isolation, but also to model their interactions and dependencies, and to explore how they might evolve under different policy, environmental, or economic scenarios. This is where Digital Twins – high-fidelity, continuously updated digital replicas of physical systems – can play a transformative role. A Digital Twin is more than just a model; it is a living, data-driven simulation that reflects the real world in near real-time, continuously updated with new data streams, and capable of running predictive scenarios to guide decision-making.

Imagine being able to:

• forecast, with a high degree of confidence, how a specific combination of tidal conditions and rainfall might lead to flooding in Galway City, and to test multiple flood defence strategies before committing resources;
• optimise the national energy grid so that wind, solar, hydro, and storage systems work together in perfect harmony, reducing carbon emissions while keeping energy reliable and affordable;
• assess the likely biodiversity consequences of changing land use from pasture to forestry in a given region, balancing environmental restoration with food production needs; and
• simulate how a redesigned bus network in Dublin might reduce travel times, cut emissions, and improve accessibility for all citizens.

The next decade will see the convergence of powerful global trends – accelerating climate change, the urgent need for clean energy transition, increasing digitalisation of all sectors, and the emergence of advanced computing technologies that can transform how we understand and manage complex systems. These factors bring both risks and opportunities. Realising these capabilities requires the seamless integration of three critical technological pillars to serve the societal and environmental security goals:

High-Performance Computing (HPC): To run the large-scale, high-resolution simulations that form the backbone of Digital Twin models.

Common Data Spaces: To provide secure, interoperable, and trustworthy access to the diverse datasets that feed and update the models.

Artificial Intelligence (AI): To process and interpret the data, enhance the predictive power of models, and optimise system behaviour.

Ireland already has policy frameworks and strategic initiatives that align with this vision. Impact 2030 commits to strengthening research and innovation capacity. The Climate Action Plan 2024 sets ambitious goals for emissions reduction and climate adaptation. The National AI Strategy: AI – Here for Good lays out principles for the ethical and trustworthy application of AI. Furthermore, European programmes such as the Common European Data Spaces, Destination Earth, and Digital Twin Ocean provide platforms for cross-border collaboration that Ireland can both contribute to and benefit from.

A coordinated national Digital Twin ecosystem can therefore be both a strategic enabler for Ireland’s climate and sustainability goals and a driver of innovation, economic competitiveness, and public sector modernisation.

The Digital Twin ecosystem architecture for Ireland

Digital Twins are digital replicas of the highly complex Earth system built under thematic categorisations from the different domains of Earth science, such as extreme natural disasters, climate change adaptation, oceans, or biodiversity. The ultimate aim is to integrate these digital replicas to form a comprehensive digital twin of the complete Earth system. See Figure 1 based on EC brochure ‘Destination Earth’, published in March 2021, and ‘Enabling a Greener Future with Digital Twin Technology Platforms from Environment Ireland 2023.

Figure 1: DestinE Digital Twins

Source: EC brochure “Destination Earth”, published 19 March 2021.

The proposed Digital Twin ecosystem for Ireland is best approached as a layered ecosystem architecture. This approach is deliberate: it ensures modularity (so that advances in one layer can benefit all others), scalability (so that more domains and users can be added over time), and interoperability (so that national Digital Twins can connect seamlessly to European and global initiatives).

HPC Infrastructure: The computational engine, delivering the power to process massive datasets and run complex simulations at national and European scales.

Common Data Spaces for Ireland: Ensures that data – whether real-time sensor readings, historical archives, or model outputs – is discoverable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable, while protecting security and sovereignty.

AI and analytics services: Allows for AI models to be trained and deployed to analyse and augment data, enhance simulations, and generate actionable insights.

Application sectors and domains: Addresses societal and policy areas – such as climate, energy, mobility, agriculture, biodiversity, and marine systems – where Digital Twins are applied to deliver tangible impacts.

HPC: The simulation engine

Why it matters: Many processes that Digital Twins must model – atmospheric circulation, hydrological cycles, power flows across a national grid, or the ecological dynamics of a marine environment – involve billions of interacting variables. Capturing these processes in sufficient detail to make reliable predictions requires computing capabilities far beyond those of conventional systems. HPC systems are designed to meet these demands, enabling simulations that are more detailed, run faster, and can be updated more frequently.

Ireland’s assets: The forthcoming EuroHPC CASPIr supercomputer, planned to be operated by the ICHEC in Ireland, will link Ireland to the European HPC ecosystem. CASPIr will offer a data-centric modular architecture, optimised for hybrid workloads that combine traditional numerical simulation with AI-enhanced modelling. This flexibility is critical: many Digital Twin applications will involve iterative cycles where data from the real world is assimilated into a simulation, the simulation predicts the near-term future, and the prediction is validated against incoming data.

Case study example: Consider a national-scale flood forecasting Digital Twin. Using HPC, it could model hundreds of possible combinations of rainfall, snowmelt, and tidal surges for the Shannon River Basin, generating accurate flood risk maps within hours. These outputs could be used by emergency services, local authorities, and infrastructure operators to make informed, timely decisions.

Figure 2: Digital Twin ecosystem for Ireland

A layered ecosystem architecture approach to a Digital Twin ecosystem for Ireland.

Common data spaces: The trust and interoperability layer

Why it matters: Even the most advanced HPC systems are only as good as the data they are given. Currently, Ireland’s valuable environmental, infrastructural, and operational datasets are dispersed across multiple agencies, institutions, and private operators. Each uses different formats, access protocols, and governance rules, which can make integrating data across sectors cumbersome and slow.

The solution: The IRL-DataSpaces framework proposes a national approach to data federation. Rather than centralising all data in one place, it allows data to remain under the control of its originator while making it accessible to authorised users through common standards, secure access controls, and shared metadata frameworks. See ‘Enabling Digital Twins with a Common Data Space for Ireland (IRL-DataSpace) from Environment Ireland 2024.

Policy alignment: This model is directly aligned with the EU’s Data Governance Act and Data Act, which aim to facilitate safe, equitable, and innovation-friendly data sharing across borders and sectors. It also supports Ireland’s Open Data Strategy 2023–2027, which promotes transparency and reuse of public sector data.

Case study example: An integrated Climate and Energy Data Space could allow a national energy Digital Twin to combine real-time wind generation data from ESB, weather forecasts from Met Éireann, and consumption patterns from smart meters, providing operators with a constantly updated, predictive view of grid stability.

AI and analytics services: The insight accelerator

Why it matters: Digital Twins can be data-intensive and computationally demanding, but raw computation alone is not enough. AI adds the ability to detect patterns, forecast outcomes, and make recommendations in complex, uncertain environments. It can also help manage the trade-offs between competing objectives – for example, balancing renewable energy integration with grid reliability.

Ireland’s assets: AIF IRL-Antenna (the AI Factory Antenna in Ireland) is planned to establish a consolidated national framework to develop and provide AI-optimised supercomputing infrastructure resources, expert support and skills development for Ireland’s national AI ecosystem across the private and public sectors. It will bridge Ireland with the European AI ecosystem through the network of EuroHPC AI Factories, their Antennas, EuroHPC National Competence Centres, and European Digital Innovation Hubs. AIF IRL-Antenna will be implemented by the Irish Centre for High-End Computing and CeADAR in association with national players in the enterprise acceleration and skill development ecosystem.

Case study example: In an integrated energy Grid Digital Twin, AI could continuously analyse data from thousands of grid sensors to identify the subtle early-warning signs of voltage instability. This could enable grid operators to intervene before small issues cascade into large outages, saving millions in lost productivity and avoiding emissions from backup generators.

Application sectors and domains: Where impact happens

Here the value of the entire ecosystem becomes tangible. Each application domain represents a set of stakeholders, datasets, and models that can benefit from the Digital Twin approach.

Climate adaptation and mitigation: A national climate Digital Twin could test adaptation measures under multiple climate scenarios, helping prioritise investments in flood defences, drought mitigation, or heatwave preparedness.

Energy system optimisation: A whole-system energy Digital Twin could help integrate high levels of renewable power, optimise storage deployment, and coordinate electrification of heating and transport.

Sustainable cities and mobility: Urban mobility twins could allow city planners to simulate new public transport routes, pedestrian zones, or congestion charges, evaluating their impacts before implementation.

Agriculture and biodiversity: Agri-environment twins could help farmers select practices that maximise yield while maintaining biodiversity and soil health.

Marine and coastal systems: Coastal Digital Twins could model the impacts of sea-level rise, wave dynamics, and human activities on coastal ecosystems, informing spatial planning and climate adaptation strategies.

Governance, skills, and ethics

Governance frameworks are essential to ensure that Digital Twins are trusted, inclusive, and ethically sound. The IRL-DSSC (Data Spaces Support Centre for Ireland) could act as a national coordination body, setting standards, ensuring compliance with privacy and ethics rules, and facilitating stakeholder engagement. The AIF IRL-Antenna could lead capacity building, providing training for public officials, industry professionals, and researchers in Digital Twin technologies and methods.

Connecting to the European Digital Twin Ecosystem

Interoperability with European and global Digital Twin initiatives will multiply the value of Ireland’s own ecosystem. By aligning with Destination Earth, the Digital Twin Ocean, and the European Green Deal Data Space, Ireland can access broader datasets, adopt best practices, and contribute to collective responses to planetary-scale challenges.

Roadmap to 2030

2025-2027: Establish governance structures, launch pilot IRL-DataSpaces, develop early Digital Twin prototypes, integrate HPC and AI for near real-time operation.

2026-2029: Deploy EuroHPC CASPIr, scale Digital Twins to cover national systems, enable cross-domain interaction between climate, energy, and mobility twins.

2028-2030: Achieve full interoperability with European systems, embed Digital Twin outputs into policy cycles, and measure impacts on emissions reduction, resilience, and economic performance.

A national opportunity

A coordinated Digital Twin ecosystem for Ireland, integrating HPC, Data Spaces and AI, would be more than a technological achievement. It would be a strategic capability – one that enables evidence-based policymaking, drives innovation, and strengthens national resilience in the face of climate change and other systemic risks. The building blocks are already in place. With deliberate investment and coordinated action, Ireland can position itself as a European leader in the application of Digital Twins for sustainability, economic prosperity, and public well-being.

Contact

Dr Venkatesh Kannan, Associate Director
ICHEC, The Tower
Trinity Technology and Enterprise Campus
Grand Canal Quay
Dublin, D02 HP83

E: venkatesh.kannan@ichec.ie